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Despite what many people (ahem, the Federal Government) would you like you to believe, we’re not going to see a drop in gas prices and, more than likely, we’re going to pay a lot more this summer than what we paid last summer.
Don’t get me wrong, I hope that the Department of Energy is correct and that our average gas price this summer will top out at $2.81 per gallon. However, I think there is just too much evidence pointing to the contrary.
For example, according to an article published by Reuters on April 11, the United States just set a gasoline consumption for April. Last week, Americans guzzled 9.472 million barrels of gasoline per day, which shattered the previous record of 9.338 million barrels set in April 2004.
If demand is already this high and we haven’t even hit peak driving season, I can’t imagine how many millions of barrels per day we’ll be using in June, July and August.
According to another article published by Reuters, “Analyst say supplies of gasoline – now at the low end of a five-year average – will keep falling while demand grows 1 to 2 percent, by far outpacing last year’s 0.5 percent growth.”
Obviously, the more gasoline we use, the higher prices are going to become.
Also, according to GasBuddy, there are currently 6 states with an average gas price above $3 per gallon, with two states – Alaska and California – already with averages above $3.25 per gallon. Not to mention the fact that there are a total of 18 states, plus the District of Columbia, that currently have average gas prices above the DOE’s $2.81 price prediction.
I think all of this points to the fact that you shouldn’t put too much weight behind the DOE’s prediction and you should prepare yourself to either drive less or be willing to pay a lot more for gasoline this summer.
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Population has increased as well.
Needs to be adjusted for population growth.
Current population growth rate according to CIA factbook is around 0.91 % annually. The numbers stated in the article claim that the previous record was 2004, at 9.338 million barrels. This year, 2007 the record was broken at 9.472 million barrels.
That means that in three years the consumption increased about 0.98 percent. Divide that by three and you have gasoline consumption increasing at about 1/3 the rate of population – or in other words we are consuming less per person now than we were in 2004 – despite the fact that the gross usage increased.
(of course these are all “back of the napkin” calculations – or as I like to call them, “google statistics”).
Can u please quit? Nagging about gas prices.. I come from Scandinavia and there gas isn’t cheap.. so come back when it costs about: 5$!!!!