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Price of Gas Falls Just in Time for Elections?

With the average price of a gallon of gasoline having fallen nearly 25% in the past two months, many people are crying foul and believe gas prices are being manipulated just in time to rescue the Republican Party for next month’s mid-term elections.

While I personally don’t believe in this “conspiracy” I can’t completely rule it out.  And, judging by the poll on the left hand side of the page, 86% of the people who voted believe there is at least a possibility that gas prices are being manipulated to help the Republican Party for the upcoming elections.

Here are a couple of points that would make most people step back and at least question if this theory is true:

The Republican Party is pro Big Oil and Big Oil is pro Republican Party.  In general, the Republican Party is very pro business and, for the most part, is very relaxed with government regulations that “restrict” said businesses.  That being said, it appears that the Republican Party has a particular interest in helping “Big Oil” succeed considering oil and gas companies contribute large sums of money to the Republican Party.

According to OpenSecrets.org, the website of the Center of Responsive Politics (a group that tracks campaign donations and funding) oil and gas companies contributed over $25 million towards the 2004 elections and have currently contributed over $12 million towards the 2006 elections.  Here is the breakdown as to which party got what:

2004: $25,652,689

• Republicans - $20,857,439 - 80%
• Democrats - $5,038,885 - 20%

2006: $12,585,277

• Republicans - $10,453,581 - 83%
• Democrats - $2,108,631 - 17%

Obviously, the Republican Party and Big Oil have a vested interest in each other’s continued success.

Oil/gas prices dropped prior to the 2004 election, too.  While not on the same scale, there was a spike in gas prices during September of 2004, when gas rose from roughly $1.75 per gallon to $2.25 per gallon, only to fall back to normal levels just as elections were approaching.

This price increase was relatively unusual considering the price of gas traditionally begins to decrease in September, not increase.

Despite these two items, I still find it hard to believe that somehow the price of oil and gasoline is being manipulated in order to try and help the Republican Party from losing seats during this upcoming election.  Here’s why:

Look at the price chart for 2005; it’s an identical image of 2006 gas prices.  Check out this chart from Gasbuddy.com which shows the spike in gas prices during the last two summers.  The past two summers are almost a perfect match - gas prices rise dramatically during July and August with a steep decline occurring towards the beginning of September lasting until Thanksgiving.

Now, if 2005 were an election year, I would point to this as evidence that gas prices were being manipulated.  However, since 2005 was not an election year, one has to assume that the recent gas prices are more cyclical in nature than caused by some Republican conspiracy.

World wide gas and oil prices are coming off of record highs, it’s not just happening in the United States.  Again, if there was a dramatic rise and fall of gas prices only in the United States it would be easy to say it was part of a conspiracy.  However, the entire world was affected by the dramatic spike in oil/gas prices and the entire world is enjoying the benefits of decreased prices.

While I certainly don’t think I created a convincing argument either way, I think most people should look at this “conspiracy” rationally and realize most of the arguments are circumstantial in nature.

If you really want someone to blame for this summer’s record oil and gas prices, blame the commodity traders that continued to push up oil prices based on unsubstantiated fears and assumptions.  Again, this is a world wide issue, not an American political party issue.

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