Over the past three weeks there have been several major indicators that “The Great Recession” is finally starting to ease and turn the corner.
First, the Case-Shiller index showed the first month-over-month increase in home prices, the first such increase in nearly three years. In other housing related news, sales of existing homes climbed for the third straight month.
Then there was the better than expected preliminary reading on the second quarter GDP, which showed the economy dipped at only a 1% annual pace between April and June. Economist had been expecting the second quarter GDP to decline at 1.5%.
Finally, this past Friday, the July job report showed the economy lost “only” 247,000 jobs and unemployment actually dipped from 9.5% to 9.4%, the first such dip in 19 months. Again, economists were expecting things to get worse, predicting unemployment would jump to 9.6%.
This is the sort of data we need to see on a consistent basis in order to know the economy has finally turned the corner and that this recession — the longest since WWII — is finally over.
That being said, it’s not as if this economic turn around won’t come without a little bit of pain, namely higher oil and gasoline prices.